Analysis of NFL Preseason Wagering Patterns Emerges from Three-Year DraftKings Dataset

Steve Makinen at VSiN has released findings drawn from DraftKings betting splits across 147 NFL preseason games played during the 2023 through 2025 seasons, and the numbers point to distinct performance gaps between bettors who follow the majority on point spreads versus those who back totals. The report covers both sides of the market and identifies repeatable edges that observers can track heading into the 2026 preseason slate.

Point-Spread Performance Shows Consistent Shortfall

Data indicates that when the majority of bets landed on one side of a point spread, those wagers finished between 44 and 46 percent against the spread across the three-year window. That range held steady whether the public leaned heavily toward favorites or underdogs, which suggests the market moved in the opposite direction more often than not during exhibition play. Researchers who reviewed the splits noted that the largest majorities produced the weakest results, while smaller majorities still fell short of 50 percent.

Yet the same dataset reveals a different picture once totals enter the equation. Bettors who sided with the majority on over/under lines reached success rates as high as 55.9 percent in certain subsets of games. The edge appeared most pronounced when the public pushed the total in one direction by a wide margin, and the actual scoring landed on the opposite side less frequently than historical norms would predict.

Systems Built Around Majority Fading and Following

The published analysis translates these patterns into practical systems for the upcoming 2026 preseason. One approach calls for fading the majority on point spreads whenever the public betting percentage exceeds a defined threshold, a tactic that aligns with the 44-46 percent ATS outcomes observed in prior seasons. A second system recommends following the majority on totals when the betting split reaches similar elevated levels, capitalizing on the higher success rates recorded in those spots.

Additional filters appear in the report, including breakdowns by week of the preseason and by team strength indicators. Observers note that early-week games produced slightly different majority results compared with later exhibitions, while matchups involving projected playoff contenders showed more pronounced movement against the public side on spreads. The systems incorporate these variables to refine entry points rather than applying a blanket rule across every game.

Dataset Scope and Methodology Details

The underlying information comes from DraftKings betting splits collected on a per-game basis, capturing the percentage of bets placed on each side of the spread and total. Coverage spans all 147 preseason contests over three years, which provides a sample large enough for pattern identification yet limited to exhibition play where roster turnover and coaching priorities differ from regular-season conditions. Makinen's update organizes the data into categories that isolate high-percentage majorities and tracks closing line movement relative to those bets.

Those who have examined similar historical splits emphasize that preseason environments introduce variables such as limited playing time for starters and experimental play-calling, factors that can amplify or mute public betting tendencies. The current report accounts for these elements by segmenting results rather than treating every game as equivalent.

Application Window for 2026 Preseason

With training camps opening and exhibition schedules set to begin in August 2026, the outlined systems become immediately relevant for bettors tracking early lines. The report supplies thresholds and triggers that can be monitored as betting markets open and percentages shift, allowing adjustments based on real-time splits. Because the underlying data covers multiple seasons, the systems carry built-in checks against single-year anomalies.

Conclusion

The VSiN analysis supplies a data-driven reference point for NFL preseason wagering that centers on measurable betting splits rather than narrative or injury speculation. By documenting the historical performance gap between spread and total majorities, the work offers concrete parameters that can be tested against incoming 2026 lines. Access to the full report appears at the VSiN NFL Preseason Top Betting Splits Trends for 2026 page, where readers can review the complete tables and system rules.